Notes on the Iowa Caucus
The internet’s ablaze with analysis of the Iowa Caucus results, so I thought I’d share a few observations of my own on each candidate.
Starting at the bottom of the list, we have one Buddy Roemer, who I don’t know, and… Herman Cain? Cain got fifty-eight votes? Well, we’re off to a weird start, but I’ll assume (that is, hope) that these were just fifty-eight guys looking for a laugh.
Moving up, Jon Huntsman received 745 votes. Yeah, he didn’t campaign in Iowa, so we’ll see how he does in New Hampshire. I’ve only seen him speak a couple times, but he was intelligent enough to form complete sentences containing coherent thoughts, even without a teleprompter, which would at least make him an improvement over our last two presidents. A friend of mine, whose opinion I mostly trust, really likes him, so I suppose for now he’d be a (distant) second choice for me among this crop of Republicans.
Next, with 5% of the vote, is Michelle Bachmann, who unsurprisingly has halted her campaign. I say “unspurprisingly,” because several of the Fox News analysts I saw last night mentioned that she lacked the resources, both financial and organisational, to support a large campaign. Doesn’t it seem absurd that financial resources are so critical to national elections? Ideally, anyone should be able to run, but who can afford it? (Hint: Those who sell out to special interests, with a few exceptions).
Rick Perry received 10.3% of the vote, and… honestly, I wish he’d have been the one to drop out so he’d quit embarrassing the rest of us Texans. Let the other Texan, the one who’s read a few books, represent the state. Also, I guess 13.3% chose everyone’s favourite serial adulterer, Newt Gingrich, in case no other candidate was enough of an insider. Yeah, I just slung some mud, but I’ll always prefer a candidate with some moral authority over someone with skeletons in the closet.
That leaves us with the top-tier candidates, starting with Dr. Ron Paul with 21.4% support. He is, by far, the candidate I’m most likely to vote for, as are many other voters under thirty – which is great news for libertarians and, for that matter, conservatives. I fear there may be an upper limit for how much support he can garner; he wants to cut almost every pet project the federal government has, which means he also alienates a lot of voting blocs. However, as his young followers grow older and start replacing the established Republicans, they’ll gradually begin to undermine the Neoconservative stranglehold on the Republican party. The best thing that could happen for both conservatives and libertarians would be for the Republican party to collapse tomorrow so a more honest third party could replace it, but the next best would be to alter the direction of the party. It’ll be years before we see such a thing come to fruition, but I’ve no doubt that future candidates similar to Dr. Paul will fare much better thanks to the groundwork his campaign is laying.
Finally, we have Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney in a photo-finish. Santorum is the big surprise, though I hear he, like Bachmann, lacks the resources for a large campaign. After reading about him, I can find a few reasons to dislike his ideas, but expect a lot of the sound and fury from the Left on his supposed social conservatism. For that matter, actual social conservatives may also question the sincerity of his beliefs. Also, his campaign banner had the slogan “Faith, Family, Freedom,” which he totally stole from this very blog.
Romney still seems, to me, like the inevitable choice, and I guess he’d be my third pick among this lot. Like most everyone else, though, I can’t get enthusiastic one way or another, so, y’know, whatever man. Barack Obama vs. Generic Republican it’ll be. Mostly likely, I’ll just vote for my usual batch of third-party candidates.
I should also mention that Dr. Thomas Fleming has a fuller analysis of Santorum and Romney here, which I highly recommend reading.
Merry Christmas
Today is Christmas Eve, and I considered writing a special post about the Christian tradition in the United States or the insperability of religion and liberty or something along those lines. However, part of the essence of ‘America First’, for me, is that a man’s first duty is to his family and community. This is the root of the virtue of patriotism, the love of and loyalty to a particular people and place. True, our Lord and Saviour did preach universal love, but charity is only meaningful when it is concrete. So, I’m going to spend this weekend with my family, and I’m sure most of you will do the same.
First, though, let me wish you a merry Christmas, and thank you for reading.
Stray Thoughts from Fox News
One of my family members likes to watch Fox News most nights (don’t ask me why, I can’t fathom it), and so I occasionally get glimpses of what goes on in the mainstream media. Tonight, I saw Bill O’Reilly speak with John Stossel about legalising medical marijuana, or something like that – most O’Reilly interviews consist of him talking over guests and yammering about this and that, so it’s hard to tell exactly what he wanted to talk about. Mr. Stossel, though, is one of the most one of the only intelligent people on cable news, so I figured I’d watch a few minutes, and decided to share a few stray thoughts about the segment.
First of all, the highlight of the interview came when Mr. O’Reilly referred to marijuana as a gateway drug. Mr. Stossel responded by saying “Milk is a gateway drug,” kids drink milk and later take marijuana. It’s a valid point, but unfortunately Mr. O’Reilly isn’t exactly the brightest crayon in the box, so he just laughed and moved on. In case he decides to read this, though, let me help him out.
Correlation does not equal causation. It may be true that many users of, say, cocaine previously took marijuana, but this does not mean one inevitably leads to the other. To use the above example, most marijuana users probably drank milk as a child, but this does not mean the milk made them more apt to try marijuana.
Now, I don’t know enough about this issue to feel comfortable saying definitely whether marijuana should be outlawed or not. However, I am confident that the federal government does not have the authority to regulate drug use, which leads me to my second observation – neither Mr. O’Reilly nor Mr. Stossel brought up the question of Constitutionality. Perhaps they simply didn’t have time, but this seems to me like a major issue. I don’t see where in the Constitution the federal government is granted such authority. They couldn’t regulate alcohol until the Eighteenth Amendment, so shouldn’t it take another amendment for other drugs?
That’s not to say the states can’t regulate drug use, according to the limits of their own constitutions. In fact, I suspect that most states would adopt similar policies to the federal government’s.
Finally, I’m always struck by how short these segments are. This could’ve been an interesting debate, but there’s simply not enough time to fully address it in the few minutes alotted. I can think of a few reasons why these shows favour short segments, like accounting for most Americans’ short attention spans, or preventing a real discussion from occuring.
To give credit where it’s due on this network, this weekend Mike Huckabee hosted a “presidential forum” on his show, where he invited each Republican presidential candidate to a round-table interview (except Jon Huntsman, who apparently declined). Each candidate received the same amount of time, and enough time (about ten minutes) to make their points with some depth. Some did much better than others, of course, and I can see why Mitt Romney is considered the most likely candidate – he was undoubtedly the smoothest talker, and probably the most charismatic overall. So, Republicans are probably stuck with him, which means that, barring a collapse of the political duopoly, Americans will be stuck with either him or Barack Obama in 2012. In any case, a hat tip to Mr. Huckabee for doing something worthwhile on his show.
Imperial War Museum
This post will be a bit more personal than most.
A couple weeks ago, I took a weeklong holiday to London, and during the trip I visited the Imperial War Museum, which covers British wars of the last century. I felt like a little boy, excited about the tanks, planes, guns, and other fun stuff on display. After my initial excitement, though, my reaction struck me as a bit odd. Remember, I’m consistently anti-war. I can count on one finger the number of American wars that I’m certain satisfy the provisions of just war doctrine, and I doubt that the British wars covered by the museum would fare much better. I love war literature, and most of that takes an anti-war approach, as well (“Dulce et Decorum Est,” H.S. Mauberley, The Things They Carried). I’m even repulsed by most of the American “heroes” associated with war, usually because of that assosiation (Lincoln, Sherman, Truman).
Doubtless, a large part of my fascination stems from the joy most boys have for machinery. After all, I also liked the London Transport Museum, where I felt it necessary to climb into every rail-car and bus I could. I suppose one could also point to boys’ innate love of contest and heroism, whether in small affairs like sports or greater things like a world war. Besides, it’s hard not to be moved by tales of legitimate heroism. The museum included the Lord Ashford Gallery, which collects Victoria Crosses and relates the occasion for each award on display. Far be it from me to deny the courage of the men who earned those VCs, even after shaking off the delusion that any war of the last century was fought to defend our freedom. “These men are worth / Your tears. You are not worth their merriment.” – Wilfred Owen